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As we showed previously, actual prices tend to overshoot and undershoot the model. If we combine 1) model predictions 2) investor tendency to overshoot and undershoot the model on actual price and 3) timing within the cycle, some interesting predictions emerge. Take this with a grain of salt and do not consider this investment advice. There are far too few observations (3 cycles in total, 1 of which is still being completed, 2 of which we think are relevant (the current cycle and previous) to describe the upcoming cycle) to draw strong conclusions. Still, we think it’s interesting as one of many possible paths forward, which is why we’ve devoted some analysis to it. On January 10, the SEC approved 11 new spot bitcoin ETFs, including applications filed by financial giants BlackRock, WisdomTree and ARK. Spot bitcoin ETFs trade bitcoin at its current, or spot, price.
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If people began using Bitcoin for payments on a huge scale, demand for Bitcoin would go up, and in turn, its price in dollars would increase. So, if you’d purchased one Bitcoin before that increase in demand, you could theoretically sell that one Bitcoin for more U.S. dollars than you bought it for, making a profit. A new Bitcoin is created when a Bitcoin miner uses highly specialized software to complete a block of transaction verifications on the Bitcoin blockchain. Roughly 900 Bitcoins are currently mined per day; however, after 210,000 blocks are completed, a Bitcoin protocol called a halving automatically reduces the number of new coins issued by half. Halving not only counteracts inflation but also supports the cryptocurrency’s value by ensuring that its price will increase if demand remains the same.
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